All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | |
KY/IN Border Clash |
Dennis Bays Warrior Invitational |
Alan Hopewell Invitational |
THSB State Preview |
Patriot Invitational |
Lincoln Trail Invitational |
Southern Indiana Athletic Conf. |
Mater Dei Sectional |
Pike Central Regional |
Brown County Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | |
8/17 |
8/28 |
9/2 |
9/4 |
9/11 |
9/25 |
10/2 |
10/9 |
10/16 |
10/23 |
10/30 |
| Team Rating |
577 |
587 |
574 |
|
641 |
635 |
618 |
693 |
618 |
563 |
560 |
|
| Team Adjusted Rating | |
587 |
539 |
|
641 |
572 |
563 |
693 |
580 |
563 |
560 |
|
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating |
KY/IN Border Clash |
Dennis Bays Warrior Invitational |
Alan Hopewell Invitational |
THSB State Preview |
Patriot Invitational |
Lincoln Trail Invitational |
Southern Indiana Athletic Conf. |
Mater Dei Sectional |
Pike Central Regional |
Brown County Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| 90 |
Alex Nolan |
12 |
16:33 |
16:18 |
15:48 |
|
16:20 |
16:25 |
16:46 |
16:34 |
16:45 |
16:38 |
16:26 |
16:37 |
| 139 |
Jackson Nolan |
9 |
16:49 |
16:33 |
16:33 |
|
17:05 |
16:33 |
16:47 |
16:44 |
16:56 |
16:44 |
16:58 |
|
| 446 |
Brice Johnson |
9 |
17:41 |
18:24 |
18:01 |
|
17:53 |
|
|
18:39 |
|
17:55 |
17:31 |
|
| 657 |
Zachary Traylor |
11 |
18:01 |
18:14 |
|
|
17:55 |
18:17 |
17:44 |
18:14 |
17:51 |
17:55 |
18:05 |
|
| 688 |
Jacob Conner |
10 |
18:05 |
18:06 |
17:56 |
|
18:44 |
18:01 |
18:02 |
18:26 |
18:03 |
17:46 |
17:55 |
|
| 995 |
Sawyer Mossberger |
9 |
18:31 |
18:41 |
|
18:53 |
|
18:28 |
18:22 |
18:55 |
18:14 |
|
18:23 |
|
| 1,033 |
John Hackney |
11 |
18:35 |
17:57 |
20:13 |
|
|
|
19:22 |
18:36 |
18:10 |
18:16 |
19:09 |
|
| 1,156 |
Caleb Merritt |
9 |
18:44 |
18:31 |
18:27 |
18:46 |
|
|
18:50 |
18:46 |
|
18:48 |
|
|
|
Max Wigand |
11 |
19:19 |
18:35 |
19:11 |
|
19:28 |
19:02 |
20:11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sam Heathcotte |
9 |
19:20 |
21:19 |
19:25 |
19:25 |
|
19:12 |
19:10 |
19:21 |
19:09 |
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Semi-State |
100% |
10.8 |
294 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
1.5 |
3.9 |
8.1 |
14.4 |
19.8 |
17.1 |
13.8 |
10.2 |
6.9 |
3.2 |
0.9 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
2.1 |
76 |
14.7 |
69.7 |
11.5 |
3.3 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
2.0 |
58 |
16.3 |
70.5 |
12.3 |
0.9 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Alex Nolan |
49.2% |
73.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
49.2% |
49.2% |
| Jackson Nolan |
6.1% |
94.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6.1% |
6.1% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Alex Nolan |
100% |
22.2 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
3.3 |
3.6 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
4.6 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
4.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Jackson Nolan |
100% |
34.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
|
100.0% |
| Brice Johnson |
100% |
83.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
97.2% |
| Zachary Traylor |
100% |
110.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
65.2% |
| Jacob Conner |
100% |
114.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
54.4% |
| Sawyer Mossberger |
100% |
141.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.0% |
| John Hackney |
100% |
143.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.4% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Alex Nolan |
100% |
2.8 |
0.7 |
6.8 |
56.6 |
20.7 |
8.7 |
3.9 |
1.8 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Jackson Nolan |
100% |
5.3 |
|
0.1 |
2.5 |
20.5 |
20.8 |
19.8 |
15.8 |
11.8 |
6.9 |
1.6 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Brice Johnson |
100% |
15.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.6 |
3.5 |
7.4 |
7.6 |
8.4 |
9.1 |
7.8 |
8.0 |
7.3 |
6.6 |
6.3 |
6.1 |
4.9 |
3.8 |
3.3 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Zachary Traylor |
100% |
25.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
2.6 |
3.2 |
3.7 |
4.6 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
|
100.0% |
| Jacob Conner |
100% |
27.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
2.5 |
3.1 |
3.7 |
4.6 |
5.2 |
6.4 |
|
100.0% |
| Sawyer Mossberger |
100% |
41.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| John Hackney |
100% |
43.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Alex Nolan |
2.7 |
0.5 |
6.6 |
58.8 |
21.4 |
8.6 |
3.0 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Jackson Nolan |
5.0 |
|
0.1 |
2.9 |
22.6 |
24.6 |
22.1 |
17.4 |
8.9 |
1.3 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Brice Johnson |
11.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.6 |
7.0 |
21.4 |
18.8 |
15.9 |
11.6 |
8.8 |
6.8 |
3.8 |
2.3 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
| Zachary Traylor |
17.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.4 |
1.8 |
3.8 |
5.8 |
7.2 |
9.3 |
11.2 |
10.5 |
11.1 |
9.5 |
8.4 |
7.3 |
5.5 |
3.8 |
2.1 |
1.2 |
| Jacob Conner |
18.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.8 |
2.1 |
3.4 |
5.5 |
6.9 |
8.4 |
9.9 |
10.6 |
10.0 |
10.6 |
8.8 |
7.7 |
6.3 |
4.2 |
2.2 |
| Sawyer Mossberger |
26.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
2.2 |
3.3 |
5.2 |
7.4 |
9.7 |
| John Hackney |
27.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
3.1 |
4.8 |
8.0 |
|
